Advances in Terrorism Risk Analysis

Defending a country against terrorist threats raises new challenges and opportunities for risk analysis, different from those that are familiar from risk analysis of natural disasters and complex technological systems. Terrorists can be informed, deceived, deterred, or distracted - options that are not available for managing the risks from hurricanes or unreliable systems and workers.

A special issue of Risk Analysis: An International Journal examines recent progress in understanding, modeling, and managing the threats from terrorism, emphasizing some of the most useful and important papers on this subject published in the journal over the past five years. The special Issue from Risk Analysis features 25 articles on Advances in Terrorism Risk Analyisis, all free online. The table of contents is available below and online.

Read the full Introduction to the Special Issue here.

PART 1. PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF TERRORIST ATTACKS

• Choosing What to Protect Vicki M. Bier
• Critical Asset and Portfolio Risk Analysis: An All-Hazards Framework Bilal M. Ayyub, William L. McGill, Mark Kaminskiy
• Some Limitations of "Risk = Threat × Vulnerability × Consequence" for Risk Analysis of Terrorist Attacks Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr
• Optimal Resource Allocation for Defense of Targets Based on Differing Measures of Attractiveness Vicki M. Bier, Naraphorn Haphuriwat, Jaime Menoyo, Rae Zimmerman, Alison M. Culpen
• Risk-Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications Robin L. Dillon, Robert M. Liebe, Thomas Bestafka
• Improving Risk-Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications Louis Anthony Cox, Jr
• Invited Response to Cox's Comment: Improving Risk-Based Decision Making for Terrorism Applications Robin L. Dillon, Robert M. Liebe
• The Elephant in the Room Is Called Game Theory John R. Hall, Jr Ph.D
• Game Theory and Risk Analysis Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.
• Intelligent Adversary Risk Analysis: A Bioterrorism Risk Management Model Gregory S. Parnell, Christopher M. Smith, Frederick I. Moxley
• Probabilistic Risk Analysis and Terrorism Risk Barry Charles Ezell, Steven P. Bennett, Detlof Von Winterfeldt, John Sokolowski, Andrew J. Collins
• How Probabilistic Risk Assessment Can Mislead Terrorism Risk Analysts Gerald G. Brown, Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.
• A Comparative Analysis of PRA and Intelligent Adversary Methods for Counterterrorism Risk Management Jason Merrick, Gregory S. Parnel
• Agent-Based Simulation for Human-Induced Hazard Analysis William M. Bulleit, Matthew W. Drewek

PART 2. PREVENTING ATTACKS

• Modeling Values for Anti-Terrorism Analysis Ralph L. Keeney
• Identifying and Structuring the Objectives of Terrorists Gregory L. Keeney, Detlof Von Winterfeldt
• A Value Model for Evaluating Homeland Security Decisions Ralph L. Keeney, Detlof von Winterfeldt

PART 3. COPING WITH ATTACKS IN THE SHORT AND LONG RUNS: EX-POST RISK MANAGEMENT

• Adaptive Management: A Paradigm for Remediation of Public Facilities Following a Terrorist Attack Jeffrey J. Whicker, David R. Janecky, Ted B. Doerr
• Analyzing Evacuation Versus Shelter-in-Place Strategies After a Terrorist Nuclear Detonation Lawrence M. Wein, Youngsoo Choi, Sylvie Denuit

PART 4. APPLICATIONS

• CAPPS II: The Foundation of Aviation Security? Arnold Barnett
• A Risk and Economic Analysis of Dirty Bomb Attacks on the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach H. Rosoff, D. Von Winterfeldt
• Optimal Stopping Analysis of a Radiation Detection System to Protect Cities from a Nuclear Terrorist Attack
  Michael P. Atkinson, Zheng Cao, Lawrence M. Wein
• Risk-Management and Risk-Analysis-Based Decision Tools for Attacks on Electric Power Jeffrey S. Simonoff, Carlos E. Restrepo, Rae Zimmerman
• Risk-Based Decision Support Tools: Protecting Rail-Centered Transit Corridors from Cascading Effects Greenberg M, Lowrie K, Mayer H, Altiok T (Forthcoming)
• Modeling the Public Health System Response to a Terrorist Event in the Food Supply Emma Hartnett, Gregory M. Paoli, Donald W. Schaffner
• Ranking the Risks from Multiple Hazards in a Small Community Hua Li, George E. Apostolakis, Joseph Gifun, William VanSchalkwyk, Susan Leite, David Barber